AI is lifting our chip exports and squeezing BPO at the same time, AMRO says
A regional economic research office says semiconductors are now one of the Philippines' biggest tailwinds, while call center work is its most exposed industry. ICT and business services grew 4.4 percent, the slowest in five years.
The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office, a research group that watches the economies of Southeast Asia plus China, Japan and South Korea, raised its growth forecast for the region today. It now expects 4.1 percent growth in 2026, up from 4.0 percent, and credits one thing in particular: strong demand for semiconductors and other AI-related products.
Its read on the Philippines specifically is more complicated. In a mid-year assessment by AMRO economists Choon Sung Lim and Jinho Choi, the country entered 2026 weaker than expected. Growth slowed for a third straight quarter to 2.8 percent in the first quarter, and inflation was still high at 6.4 percent in June.
Two sides of the same boom
On the good side, AI is buying our chips. Electronics make up more than half of everything the Philippines sells abroad in goods, and AMRO expects semiconductor exports to stay strong on AI demand, though it warns our gains will likely be smaller than those of some neighbors.
On the bad side, AI is coming for the work we are better known for. AMRO singles out the IT and business process management industry, the formal name for the BPO and call center sector, as concentrated in routine tasks that are the most vulnerable to automation. ICT and business services grew only 4.4 percent, the slowest pace in five years.
Why it matters
The part of the economy AI is helping and the part it is threatening are not the same part. Chip plants and call centers do not hire the same way, or in the same numbers. That is why AMRO's recommendation is not just to sell more electronics but to upskill workers for the age of AI, meaning training people for jobs the software cannot do yet.
The catch to watch
These are forecasts, not results, and AMRO says risks from unpredictable US trade policy remain. It is also worth being honest that AI is not the only drag here. Public construction fell 31.5 percent compared with a year earlier in the first quarter, following corruption allegations from mid-2025. Blaming the slowdown on AI alone would be too easy.